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i just read that the chance of hitting your flush if you have 4 on the flop is not that good at all and i tested it when i had 4 on the flop and i almost never hit the 5th but when someone against me has 4 he almost always hits his flush from the 20 times like 18 times and in my case it's revearsed i hit him 2 out of 20 what the hell is wrong here getting real sick of it people keep hitting their flushes.........

Let's talk about this a little more logically. On the flop with a flush draw, there's a ~19% chance your draw comes in on the turn, and a ~35% chance that it comes in by the river. Your sample size is tiny. Maybe you're running bad, maybe you remember the times they hit more than the ones you hit, and maybe you're playing poorly. Most likely, it's a mix of the 3.

I read a recent blog from a member here who had gone on a long run of missing flush draws, then three came in close succession. I myself am on a fairly long run without a flush. I am not counting, but it must be around 15 games or more without hitting a flush. But thats all part of the variance of the game. One will come, probably when I least expect it. Just like the bad river cards we all get, we remember far more of the bad ones than the good ones.

Just a small useless stat to back up the good and bad statement. Market research in the UK revealed that poor word of mouth advertising for companies cost approximately a potential further 8 inquiries. Whereas a positive word of mouth advert only generated a further 3 inquiries.

So maybe you can see from that, we remember the bad crap and forget, all too often the good stuff, for want of better adjectives!

that is true, i guess bad beats do attend to keep in your head more then the good ones, but this is going on for a long time the same with straights almost never hit them, but maybe it will turn in a short while, i post it if i do hit them regular.......greetings tim

Here is a crazy idea.....

Stop playing draws so much and "expecting" them to hit.

Only way I chase a flush is if I have something else that also can improve in the hand such as a str or trips ect.

Vex444 said:

Only way I chase a flush is if I have something else that also can improve in the hand such as a str or trips ect.

You're losing some serious value.

As far as chasing flush draws it's all a matter of pot odds the way i see it. If you have invested a lot in the pot and the bet against is not huge then it's worth it ...otherwise not. Just have to weigh up the 35% chance of hitting against the investment made and what your likely winnings will be if you hit.

thejudge said:

As far as chasing flush draws it's all a matter of pot odds the way i see it. If you have invested a lot in the pot and the bet against is not huge then it's worth it ...otherwise not. Just have to weigh up the 35% chance of hitting against the investment made and what your likely winnings will be if you hit.

This is good, just remember that it's only a ~20% chance of hitting your flush on the next card, and if he's going to be firing on the turn, you have to take that into account.

Not only do pot odds come into account. You should be considering the implied odds and expected value if you hit your flush. When you are calling you are risking money on the fact that you expect to make a hand that will win on showdown. When you are calling down on the draw you are only going to get 2:1 on your total money invested (assuming HU) when you hit the flush and take down the pot without betting and getting called on the river. If you think the other player will fold the river on a nice size value bet you aren't getting enough chips out of them to make the play that much more profitable. Especially in MTT/SnG with a limited amount of chips, this can make chasing not worth the risk. You really want to get into someone who has a hand they aren't going to release on the river. Thus hand ranging can determine the implied odds should you complete the flush.